Does 70% really mean 55%, and if so, is it really safe to open up? Are we being misled?

2021.09.24 05:00 Azkatro Does 70% really mean 55%, and if so, is it really safe to open up? Are we being misled?

Obviously the focus has shifted heavily from suppressing case numbers to increasing vaccination rates. And by all measures, we are doing well on that front. The more people that are vaccinated, the safer it is for us to open up and do stuff. Today the Premier has announced that some numbers around LGAs hitting 90-95% of first dose rates, and that when we hit 70% we can start to enjoy more freedoms.
My question is this: are we really doing as well as we think we are?
I keep hearing these percentages thrown around, and the natural inclination for most is to relate it to flat population numbers. But it clearly isn't. Kids under 12 cannot be vaccinated (yet), nor can the immunocompromised.
This may already be obvious to most, but the percentages are based on 16-and-over. This is confirmed here:
I found myself curious about the real percentage. According to 2016 census numbers, children aged 0-9 years made up 18.5% of the population, with 15-19 years making up a further 6%. If you quantify out the 17+ year olds, you get 2.4%, so that added to the 18.5 makes roughly 20.9% of the population being made up of children aged 16 or below.
According to the NSW Health statement linked above, the total first dose number is at 2,087,191, which is being reported as 83.6% of the population. This would mean they are working off a population total of 2,496,640, and is the number of over-16s. If 20.9% of the total NSW population is 16 and under, that means the theoretical population total the above figures are being based off is 3,156,308, which puts the real first jab rate at 66.1%.
So based on that, it means that when the Premier comes out in a couple of weeks and proudly announces that we've hit a 70% full vaccination rate, what she really means is that we've reached a rate of 55.37%. I know this doesn't take into account that there are a lot of kids aged 12-16 getting vaccinated now as well, but I haven't found much in the way of concrete numbers around this group of the population yet.
Having come up with all of the above, it brings me to my concern slash point. Is it really such a good idea to be opening up at this supposed magic figure of "70%"? I have an anecdotal understanding that traditional vaccination rates need to be at 85% or higher in communities for them to be fully effective, so to think the vast majority of people will be seeing the "70%" rate as a win and going out like everything is back to normal is hugely worrying for me. Isn't that way too risky, and too soon with still over 1k cases and people dying every day?
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2021.09.24 05:00 kurt871 Tire recommendations for max comfort/noise reduction

  1. Does anyone have an all-season tire they love that optimizes more on comfort and noise reduction than on performance? My Mk7.5 is a daily so stock performance is plenty for me, but the standard Potenzas kinda suck. I know the consensys is everyone loves the Michelin Pilot Sport A/S 4's but wanted to see if there might be other contenders. (I also know 17" is better for this but I'd like to say on 18" for now.)
  2. I'm thinking of going up from stock 225 to either 235 or even 245 if they fit. Any concerns there? Want to ideally avoid rubbing, speedo inaccuracies, etc. I like the meatier look and having some more curb/pothole protection as a city street parkedriver.
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2021.09.24 05:00 perriewinkles Male nude, maybe balance out the lovely female figures just a bit lol ; )

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2021.09.24 05:00 Mi_Ofelia Do you put your hat on your bed?

Or like Kayce says: “I don’t believe in that shit…”
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2021.09.24 05:00 Envyracinghemi Adding Anastrozole.

So I went to to the doctor today and had blood work. Currently I’m doing .55ml of testosterone EOD. It has worked great my test before injections was 202. Today it read 765ng/dl. My free testosterone was 233.2 pg/ml and SHBG was 14.1 nmo/L. The problem is my estradiol is up to 70pg/mL. My doctor has now prescribed me 1mg of Anastrozole daily to lower the estradiol. My concern is, everywhere I read most dosing of Anastrozole is .25mg-.5mg… any advice Is appreciated, especially from people who are currently taking Anastrozole.
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2021.09.24 05:00 amberrrellllaa Gym/ workout friends

Heyo :) wondering if any of you folks out there go to club16 at waterfront?
I’d (27F) love to meet more people around the city, and doing something I love (and hopefully you love) would be awesome! Maybe we can show each other new workouts, or perhaps go on hikes and do outdoor activities as well.
I actually began 75HARD today so if you’d like to join me on that maybe we can keep one another accountable and motivate/ encourage each-other with this as well. :)
I should mention I’m in school and I also work so my schedule is already a bit crazy, but I’m sure we can figure something out.
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2021.09.24 05:00 ImEliasK Its currently September 24, 2021 at 05:00AMat GMT +2

Its currently September 24, 2021 at 05:00AM at GMT +2
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2021.09.24 05:00 Push_Citizen Does anyone recognize this?

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2021.09.24 05:00 stormy001 Online seller cries foul over Shopee’s warning involving rival platform

Online seller cries foul over Shopee’s warning involving rival platform submitted by stormy001 to malaysia [link] [comments]

2021.09.24 05:00 Big_Ass_Dipshit Charging a battery(or anything with one) is connecting it to life support.

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2021.09.24 05:00 808sAndShartbreaks PS4 Display Help?

My 2nd gen PS4 recently stopped sending an HDMI signal? A few weeks ago was the first instance, it would turn on but my projector would just display “no source found”, my Apple TV and ps3 worked fine on it after testing.
I took some compressed air to it and made sure the HDMI port didn’t have any bent pins, and after plugging everything back in, it worked. Then it started happening more and more and I found the trick was to manually turn off the console by holding down the power switch for 5 secs and power it back on, which I found was a weird solution.. and now that doesn’t even work.
I was just wondering if anyone has had any similar problems?
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2021.09.24 05:00 nibroC69420 DDDDDDDDDDDDDD

DDDDDDDDDDDDDD submitted by nibroC69420 to the_walten_files [link] [comments]

2021.09.24 05:00 snarfy666 Merging profiles

Is there any way to take 2 different profiles and merge them into 1?
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2021.09.24 05:00 Darkpunchedstars Starting my first full playthrough, anything I should know? ( No spoilers please)

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2021.09.24 05:00 jayyyy______________ Japanese > English: friend has asked me to translate but I can read Japanese nor speak it. Help me

Japanese > English: friend has asked me to translate but I can read Japanese nor speak it. Help me submitted by jayyyy______________ to translator [link] [comments]

2021.09.24 05:00 beekman57 [USA-VA] [H] AMD Ryzen 5 3600X CPU w/ Cooler Master Hyper 212 EVO Cooler Included [W] Paypal, Local Cash

$195 Shipped for the chip and cooler.
Local is 22312.
CPU and cooler are both in excellent condition. I don't have the Wraith cooler that came with the chip so I thought I'd include a Hyper 212 EVO as part of the deal. All AM4 mounting hardware is included with the cooler. Thanks for checking out my listing.
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2021.09.24 05:00 bleedingbambino [FS] Portland Blue on Blue triple bogo size M and L

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2021.09.24 05:00 modelo420 Birds Nest Fungi

Birds Nest Fungi submitted by modelo420 to mycology [link] [comments]

2021.09.24 05:00 Doom721 Infravision is COMPLETLEY BROKEN and needs an IMMEDIATE HOTFIX

Ok this is frickin terrible. If you have infravision and look through foliage, a tree, a bush, a TALL BLADE OF GRASS you can see the entire fight. You can see people through walls sometimes, you can see targets past foliage with full thermal quality at RENDER RANGE. The game now has built-in ESP as long as you have infravision and a bush, or a vine.
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2021.09.24 05:00 syncr23 Recruiting active late-game players. Supportive and collaborative group. Come hang with us. [CS30]

We clear NM, UNM, Brutal daily
Chaos30 [CS30] has one spot open for an active late game player that's seeking a reasonable approach to CvC.
Rank 300 clan(Level 7) -- Tier 6 in CvC, 7 CvC trophies
Our main focus is to always remain chill/friendly/supportive.
Our new ambition is to farm Milestone 10 rewards (Tier 6) with low effort. We have done this pretty easily the last two times without any whaling, but are looking for decent points from new recruits. Getting 200k without personal spending would be a solid contribution. It's understood this isn't easy for everyone and if we could take more than 30 people we'd be happy to eliminate this requirement but as it stands, clans need to be built of similar level players to optimize rewards for everyone.
Beyond that we have a really nice community of people working to help each other. We chat regularly about game developments and strategies. Lots of experience with CB (both old school and unkillable), most people have completed FW, etc. Loads of teamwork on builds and helping each other get through content.
Minimum requirements:

Please DM or reply here on reddit with some basic info about your game progression and CvC comfort level. I'll share the discord channel and once you have joined discord, apply in game to CS30 and one of our officers will approve your application in game.
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2021.09.24 05:00 Nopir389 Dunkey Reacts to the Mario movie cast

Dunkey Reacts to the Mario movie cast submitted by Nopir389 to ContagiousLaughter [link] [comments]

2021.09.24 05:00 637Cruz 10/5

Who’s going to the Richmond concert ?
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2021.09.24 05:00 sharewithme Word of The Hour: associated

English: associated

  1. joined as a companion
  2. of associate
  3. brought into association
Thank you so much for being a member of our community!
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2021.09.24 05:00 prawnbiryani 💗☁🍦🌸🧁🤍🦩

💗☁🍦🌸🧁🤍🦩 submitted by prawnbiryani to 11hr11min [link] [comments]

2021.09.24 05:00 efemell Yahaha! Art by me

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